Seasonal forecasting of dolphinfish distribution in eastern Australia to aid recreational fishers and managers

Abstract Seasonal forecasting of environmental conditions and marine species distribution has been used as a decision support tool in commercial and aquaculture fisheries. These tools may also be applicable to species targeted by the recreational fisheries sector, a sector that is increasing its use of marine resources, and making important economic and social contributions to coastal communities around the world. Here, a seasonal forecast of the habitat and density of dolphinfish ( Coryphaena hippurus ), based on sea surface temperatures, was developed for the east coast of New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Two prototype forecast products were created; geographic spatial forecasts of dolphinfish habitat and a latitudinal summary identifying the location of fish density peaks. The less detailed latitudinal summary was created to limit the resolution of habitat information to prevent potential resource over-exploitation by fishers in the absence of total catch controls. The forecast dolphinfish habitat model was accurate at the start of the annual dolphinfish migration in NSW (December) but other months (January - May) showed poor performance due to spatial and temporal variability in the catch data used in model validation. Habitat forecasts for December were useful up to five months ahead, with performance decreasing as forecast were made further into the future. The continued development and sound application of seasonal forecasts will help fishery industries cope with future uncertainty and promote dynamic and sustainable marine resource management.