Aragats space-environmental centre: status and SEP forecasting possibilities

The Aragats Space Environment Center in Armenia provides real-time monitoring of cosmic particle fluxes. Neutron monitors operating at altitudes of 2000 m and 3200 m on Mt Aragats continuously gather data to detect possible abrupt enhancement of the count rates. Additional high precision detectors, measuring muon and electron fluxes, along with directional information have been put in operation on Mt Aragats in the summer of 2002. We plan to use this information to establish an early warning system against extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) events which pose danger to the satellite electronics and the space station crew. Solar ion and proton fluxes as measured by space-borne sensors on ACE and GOES satellites are used to derive expected arrival times of highest energy ions at 1 AU. The peaks in the time series detected by Aragats neutron monitors, coincided with these times, demonstrate the possibility of early detection of SEP events using the ground-based detectors.