Reduced SIR Model of COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract: We propose a mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic preserving an optimal balance between the adequate description of a pandemic by SIR model and simplicity of practical estimates As base model equations, we derive two-parameter nonlinear first-order ordinary differential equations with retarded time argument, applicable to any community (country, city, etc ) The presented examples of modeling the pandemic development depending on two parameters: the time of possible dissemination of infection by one virus carrier and the probability of contamination of a healthy population member in a contact with an infected one per unit time, e g , a day, is in qualitative agreement with the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic The proposed model is compared with the SIR model © 2021, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd