The influence of weather on migraine – are migraine attacks predictable?

Objective The study aimed at elucidating a potential correlation between specific meteorological variables and the prevalence and intensity of migraine attacks as well as exploring a potential individual predictability of a migraine attack based on meteorological variables and their changes. Methods Attack prevalence and intensity of 100 migraineurs were correlated with atmospheric pressure, relative air humidity, and ambient temperature in 4-h intervals over 12 consecutive months. For each correlation, meteorological parameters at the time of the migraine attack as well as their variation within the preceding 24 h were analyzed. For migraineurs showing a positive correlation, logistic regression analysis was used to assess the predictability of a migraine attack based on meteorological information. Results In a subgroup of migraineurs, a significant weather sensitivity could be observed. In contrast, pooled analysis of all patients did not reveal a significant association. An individual prediction of a migraine attack based on meteorological data was not possible, mainly as a result of the small prevalence of attacks. Interpretation The results suggest that only a subgroup of migraineurs is sensitive to specific weather conditions. Our findings may provide an explanation as to why previous studies, which commonly rely on a pooled analysis, show inconclusive results. The lack of individual attack predictability indicates that the use of preventive measures based on meteorological conditions is not feasible.