A new hybrid approach for evaluating technology risks and opportunities in the energy transition in Ireland

Abstract We combine energy systems optimization models (ESOM), multi-criteria assessment (MCA) and a stakeholder workshop to evaluate decarbonization risks, trade-offs and opportunities for Ireland. Using an ESOM of Ireland, we develop decarbonisation scenario ensembles with variations across multiple dimensions, including carbon budget and technology availability as informed by a stakeholder workshop. For these scenario ensembles, we quantify investment risk and technology robustness and use these new attributes to conduct an MCA of technology risks, trade-offs and opportunities. Results include an assessment of technology opportunities for two investor archetypes, i.e., risk minimizing and return maximizing, and a sensitivity analysis of the MCA weights using Monte Carlo simulation. This represents a new methodology which demonstrates a synthesis of insights into technology opportunities associated with Ireland’s energy transition and their resilience across risk and economic criteria. By incorporating and displaying results for a diversity of perspectives, this work underlines the importance of transdisciplinary research.