Time and Chance: Modelling the Attrition of Old Houses

AbstractThe paper discusses models of the effects of piecemeal rebuilding of groups of old houses as a result of fire and other factors. The models are used to test the validity of historical inferences commonly made from regional variations in survival. It is shown that fire may be a more significant cause of destruction than was previously thought, that it was probably more so in nucleated than in scattered settlements, and that other causes of destruction can be modelled in the same way. Vernacular thresholds and apparent waves of rebuilding may be illusions caused by the differential attrition of early buildings following a change in materials or style.