Сравнительный анализ методик прогнозирования VCE на примере взрыва во Фликсборо

On June, 1 st , 1976 at the company "Nipro" in Flixborough of Great Britain there was an explosion of cyclohexane which has entered into ten of major accidents of 20 th century. Despite the conducted numerous investigations of this industrial explosion a number of the technical moments of failure at the company "Nipro" are remained unknown. In particular, TNT-equivalent forecasts fluctuates largely from 15 to 55 tons. In this connection it is found that the high bound of theoretically possible weight of cyclohexane in a vapor cloud is able to make 37,9 tons. On the basis of mathematical processing of the Sadee's data it is positioned that for considered failure dependence of excessive pressure of explosion AP on distance R is described by equation AP = 94970R -1,526 with factor of correlation 0,990. This circumstance allows to use the Sadee's data as the standard for verification of techniques of forecasting of consequences of vapor cloud explosions. As a result of the made verification of methods of RB G-05-039-96, RD 03-409-01, the SP 12.13130.2009, GOST P 12.3.047-2012, Dorofeev, TNO and BST2 is positioned that consequences of real explosion in Flixborough is better are described TNT-method from RD 03-409-01 and the Dorofeev's equation for the detonation mode.