Quickly identifying tree species susceptible to extinction: a case study of seven tree species at Northeast China Transect

Summary Quickly predicting which species are most susceptible to extirpation in a defined area is important for conservation and environmental monitoring. We hypothesised that the susceptibility of tree species to extinction in an area could be inferred by the spatial and temporal dynamics of its populations. Here we use change in population size, population spatial variability, spatial autocorrelation, spatial cohesion, crash rate, and recovery rate to characterise the relative susceptibility to extirpation for seven tree species along the Northeast China Transect from 1986 to 1994. Betula dahurica Pall. and Populus davidiana Dode. were found to have a higher susceptibility to loss than Pinus koraiensis S iebold et Zucc., Betula costata Trautv., and Larix olgensis A. Henry in this area during this time period. The same methods could be useful to monitor and predict the susceptibility of species extinction at a larger regional scale.