Crop Residue Removal: Assessment of Future Bioenergy Generation Potential and Agro-Environmental Limitations Based on a Case Study of Ukraine

This study assesses the bioenergy generation potential of crop residues in Ukraine for the year 2030. Projections of agricultural development are made based on the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) and verified against available Agricultural Member State Modeling (AGMEMOD) results in regard to the six main crops cultivated in Ukraine (wheat, barley, corn, sunflower, rape and soya). Two agricultural development scenarios are assessed (traditional and innovative), facilitating the projection of future crop production volumes and yields for the selected crops. To improve precision in defining agro-environmental limitations (the share of crop residues necessary to be kept on the fields to maintain soil fertility for the continuous cultivation of crops), yield-dependent residue-to-product ratios (RPRs) were applied and the levels of available soil nutrients for regions of Ukraine (in regard to nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and humus) were estimated. The results reveal the economically feasible future bioenergy generation potential of crop residues in Ukraine, equaling 3.6 Mtoe in the traditional agricultural development scenario and 10.7 Mtoe in the innovative development scenario. The projections show that, within the latter scenario, wheat, corn and barley combined are expected to provide up to 81.3% of the bioenergy generation potential of crop residues.