Application of an operational storm coastal impact forecasting system

The National Oceanography Centre (NOC), in collaboration with the UK Met Office, has developed an operational suite of models for the Irish Sea. This work has extended this suite to include a coastal vulnerability early warning system for the Sefton Coast in Liverpool Bay. The system is designed to forecast when the offshore hydrodynamic and wave conditions exceed thresholds for low, moderate and high hazard of storm impact and also gives an indication of the extent of dune erosion. The model simulates a 72h period (yesterday:today:tomorrow), allowing a 24h spin-up period and 48h forecast. The main idea of the system is to use forecasts for impending storms to assist with management decisions.