Assessment of morphological CT imaging features for the prediction of risk stratification, mutations, and prognosis of gastrointestinal stromal tumors.

Objectives To investigate the correlation between CT imaging features and risk stratification of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs), prediction of mutation status, and prognosis. Methods This retrospective dual-institution study included patients with pathologically proven GISTs meeting the following criteria: (i) preoperative contrast-enhanced CT performed between 2008 and 2019; (ii) no treatments before imaging; (iii) available pathological analysis. Tumor risk stratification was determined according to the National Institutes of Health (NIH) 2008 criteria. Two readers evaluated the CT features, including enhancement patterns and tumor characteristics in a blinded fashion. The differences in distribution of CT features were assessed using univariate and multivariate analyses. Survival analyses were performed by using the Cox proportional hazard model, Kaplan-Meier method, and log-rank test. Results The final population included 88 patients (59 men and 29 women, mean age 60.5 ± 11.1 years) with 45 high-risk and 43 low-to-intermediate-risk GISTs (median size 6.3 cm). At multivariate analysis, lesion size ≥ 5 cm (OR: 10.52, p = 0.009) and enlarged feeding vessels (OR: 12.08, p = 0.040) were independently associated with the high-risk GISTs. Hyperenhancement was significantly more frequent in PDGFRα-mutated/wild-type GISTs compared to GISTs with KIT mutations (59.3% vs 23.0%, p = 0.004). Ill-defined margins were associated with shorter progression-free survival (HR 9.66) at multivariate analysis, while ill-defined margins and hemorrhage remained independently associated with shorter overall survival (HR 44.41 and HR 30.22). Inter-reader agreement ranged from fair to almost perfect (k: 0.32-0.93). Conclusions Morphologic contrast-enhanced CT features are significantly different depending on the risk status or mutations and may help to predict prognosis. Key points • Lesions size ≥ 5 cm (OR: 10.52, p = 0.009) and enlarged feeding vessels (OR: 12.08, p = 0.040) are independent predictors of high-risk GISTs. • PDGFRα-mutated/wild-type GISTs demonstrate more frequently hyperenhancement compared to GISTs with KIT mutations (59.3% vs 23.0%, p = 0.004). • Ill-defined margins (hazard ratio 9.66) were associated with shorter progression-free survival at multivariate analysis, while ill-defined margins (hazard ratio 44.41) and intralesional hemorrhage (hazard ratio 30.22) were independently associated with shorter overall survival.