[Incidence and predictive factors of iron deficiency anemia after acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding without portal hypertension].

INTRODUCTION: There are few studies on iron deficiency anemia (IDA) after non-variceal acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in patients without portal hypertension. OBJECTIVES: To define the incidence of IDA after UGIB, to characterize the predictive factors for IDA and to design algorithms that could help physicians identify those patients who could benefit from iron therapy. MATERIAL AND METHOD: We registered 391 patients with UGIB between April 2007 and May 2009. Patients with portal hypertension and those with clinical or/and biological conditions that could affect the ferrokinetic pattern were excluded. Blood analyses were performed, including ferric parameters upon admission, on the 5th day, and on the 30th day after the hemorrhage episode. We used a multiple logistic regression model and a classification and regression tree model. RESULTS: A total of 124 patients were included, of which 76 (61.3%) developed IDA 30 days after UGIB. The predictive variables were age >75 years (P=.037; OR 3.9; 95% CI: 1.3-11.6), initial urea level >80mg/dL (P=.027; OR 2.9; 95% CI: 1.1-7.6), initial ferritin level ≤65ng/dL (P=.002; OR 7.6; 95% CI: 2.9-18.5), initial hemoglobin level ≤100g/L (P=.003; OR 3.2; 95% CI: 1.3-8.0), hemoglobin level on the 5th day ≤100g/L (P<.001; OR 14.9; 95% CI: 3.6-61.1) and the value of the transferrin saturation index on the 5th day <10% (p<0.001; OR 7.2; 95% CI: 2.6-20.3). CONCLUSIONS: Most patients with UGIB developed IDA 30 days after the episode. Identification of the predictive factors for IDA may help to establish guidelines for the administration of iron therapy.