“More drugs, less crime”: why crime dropped in New York City, 1985–2007

The crime drop in New York City has produced a whole academic literature that is unable to explain the decline. This article argues that this literature has ignored the simplest explanation of all: a simultaneous increase in the supply, and decrease in demand for illegal drugs led to a drop in the price of illegal drugs, which in turn led to a drop in crime. We use ethnography to document the drop in demand, secondary literature to document the increase in supply, and econometric analysis to illustrate Granger causality between drug prices and crime rates. While crime dropped across the nation and internationally, our article is focused on New York City.