Brazilian maize yields negatively affected by climate after land clearing

Over 50% of the Brazilian Cerrado has been cleared, predominantly for agropastoral purposes. Here, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model to run 15-year climate simulations across Brazil with six land-cover scenarios: (1) before extensive land clearing, (2) observed in 2016, (3) Cerrado replaced with single-cropped (soy) agriculture, (4) Cerrado replaced with double-cropped (soy–maize) agriculture, (5) eastern Amazon replaced with single-cropped agriculture and (6) eastern Amazon replaced with double-cropped agriculture. All land-clearing scenarios (2–6) contain significantly more growing season days with temperatures that exceed critical temperature thresholds for maize. Evaporative fraction significantly decreases across all land-clearing scenarios. Altered weather reduces maize yields between 6% and 8% compared with the before-extensive-land-clearing scenario; however, soy yields were not significantly affected. Our findings provide evidence that land clearing has degraded weather in the Brazilian Cerrado, undermining one of the main reasons for land clearing: rain-fed crop production. Half of Brazil’s tropical Cerrado savannah has been cleared for agropastoral use. Using models, this study finds that this clearing is degrading regional weather, reducing maize yields there.