A New Diagnostic Model and Improved Prediction Algorithm for the Heights of Evaporation Ducts

This paper develops a new method for the diagnosis and prediction of the evaporation duct heights on the sea, which has certain reference significance for the study of the evaporation ducts. Based on traditional diagnostic and predictive models of evaporation duct heights, a new diagnostic model is proposed. By determining the overall Richardson number Rib, the Monin-Obukhov (M-O) length L and the wind speed characteristic parameter u*, temperature characteristic parameter θ* and humidity characteristic parameters q* are calculated, and then the evaporation duct height is diagnosed. Taking the diagnosed heights as a time series, and using the support vector regression (SVR) algorithm improved by a simulated annealing operator, then the time series is analyzed by taking three consecutive sample steps as input and the next sample step as output in order to develop an algorithm for predicting future heights. Finally, the prediction results are compared with those from the traditional auto-regressive (AR) algorithm and classical SVR algorithm to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the improved SVR algorithm. The results show that the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the traditional AR, the classical SVR and the improved SVR algorithms is 0.60, 0.45 and 0.38, and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the three alorithms is 7.79%, 6.10% and 4.78%, respectively. The prediction error of the improved SVR algorithm is 37% less than that of the traditional AR algorithm and 15% less than that of the classical SVR algorithm, signifying an improvement in its prediction capability.