Індексний метод у сучасних дослідженнях грошового обігу України

The article discusses the theoretical and practical issues of using the index method when conducting statistical monitoring of money circulation. The essence and basic concepts of monetary circulation in Ukraine are disclosed.  It was found that cash flows and the amount of money in the economic system act as an important regulator of material production and all economic processes, which made it possible to build and characterize two- and three-factor deterministic GDP models for 2019‒2020. For this purpose, such indicators of monetary circulation as the average annual size of the money supply, cash, and the share of cash in the money supply, the speed of money supply and the speed of cash are calculated. For each model, an algorithm for assessing the impact of these indicators on the absolute change in Ukraine’s GDP by index methods of chain substitutions and the isolated influence of factors is presented and implemented. The advantages and disadvantages of index methods are shown both from the point of view of statistical calculations and from the point of view of economic concepts of money circulation. Calculations show that the growth of the money supply has a positive effect on the dynamics of the country’s GDP in 2020, and the rate indicators, on the contrary, reduce the GDP growth. In modern studies of monetary circulation, it is advisable to use the index method to identify the isolated influence of factors on the absolute growth of Ukraine’s GDP. The same method allows us to reveal how the effect of interaction between the rate of turnover of the money supply and its volume is distributed, depending on their separate influence. With this approach, each factor is provided with the same calculation conditions, the results do not depend on the economic nature of indicators and the order of their location in the original GDP model, there are no contradictions to the economic postulates of monetary circulation, although the problems of choosing a research method and its justification are still open.