CBR-Spill RISK: Model to Calculate Crude-by-Rail Probabilities and Spill Volumes

ABSTRACT Abstract ID: 2017-142 – Evaluating risks from crude-by-rail (CBR) traffic for Environmental Impact Statements or contingency planning purposes requires quantification of both the probabilities and potential impacts from spill events. Despite publicity surrounding CBR accidents of the last few years, there are actually relatively few incidents to analyze for projecting spill probabilities and volumes. This paper presents a method (CBR-SpillRISK) to calculate spill probability and volumes for CBR risk evaluation using historical freight rail accident and tank car release data with adjustments specifically for CBR factors is presented. These factors include: CBR unit trains are operated differently from other freight trains with respect to maximum speed; CBR unit trains act differently with respect to lateral stability; operators plan to make capital improvements on rail lines; and a number of safety improvements for CBR have been, or will be, implemented due to federal and state regulations.