Impacts of climate change on energy consumption and peak demand in buildings: A detailed regional approach

This paper presents the results of numerous commercial and residential building simulations, with the purpose of examining the impact of climate change on peak and annual building energy consumption over the portion of the EIC (Eastern Interconnection) located in the United States. The climate change scenario considered includes changes in mean climate characteristics as well as changes in the frequency and duration of intense weather events. Simulations were performed using the BEND (Building ENergy Demand) model which is a detailed building analysis platform utilizing EnergyPlus™ as the simulation engine. Over 26,000 building configurations of different types, sizes, vintages, and characteristics representing the population of buildings within the EIC, are modeled across the three EIC time zones using the future climate from 100 target region locations, resulting in nearly 180,000 spatially relevant simulated demand profiles for three years selected to be representative of the general climate trend over the century. This approach provides a heretofore unprecedented level of specificity across multiple spectrums including spatial, temporal, and building characteristics. This capability enables the ability to perform detailed hourly impact studies of building adaptation and mitigation strategies on energy use and electricity peak demand within the context of the entire grid and economy.