Energy and atmosphere system planning of coal-dependent cities based on an interval minimax-regret coupled joint-probabilistic cost-benefit approach

Abstract This study proposes a novel method titled interval minimax-regret coupled joint-probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for the energy and atmosphere system planning of coal-dependent cities located in ecologically fragile areas under multiple uncertainties. The suitability of the model is demonstrated by applying it to Yulin City, China within a 15-year planning horizon (2020–2034). Energy and atmosphere system management schemes have been defined under 63 different scenarios in the model. Results reveal that: (i) both energy supply for the manufacturing industry and pollutant emission would decrease as joint probability level increases; (ii) a higher possibility of violating the total secondary energy output level would lead to a lower energy supply for the manufacturing industry and pollutant emission; (iii) when primary energy output and secondary energy output increase by 5% and 20%, respectively, and production is produced as planned, the system would achieve the lowest cost-benefit ratio ([0.67, 0.80]) and the highest net present value rate ([0.25, 0.48]) from 2020 to 2034. The model supports decision-makers by providing innovative insights into the tradeoffs among system objectivity, reliability, and profitability.