Distribución potencial del Pinus martinezii: un modelo espacial basado en conocimiento ecológico y análisis multicriterio Potential distribution of Pinus martinezii: an spatial model based in ecological knowledge and muticriteria analysis

The modeling of potential and current distribution of species has become a very active research area. Generally, modeling is based on the concept of ecological niche, and is supported by the use of computer programs. The main objective of this project was to develop a potential distribution model of Pinus martinezii in the Cuitzeo Lake basin using data of environmental variables, and presence of the target species. To this purpose, the environmental factors that determine the distribution of P. martinezii were identified, and a bioclimatic profile of the species was made. The modeling was based on a spatial multicriteria analyisis. The attributes were grouped into 3 criteria: geopedologic, morphometric and climatic conditions. The resulting potential distribution map showed that there are 2 main areas of potential distribution of P. martinezii, and some isolated areas where populations have not been found. The spatial model is an important tool for planning conservation and reforestation efforts, as well as to plan additional field surveys and identifying sites where the specie can be reintroduced.