A study of possibility to predict the sensitivity of different respiratory tract divisions to influenza

To predict a potential value of a viral ID50 for a macro-organism of interest (e.g. humans), it is necessary to determine in vitro two parameters of the interaction of the virus with susceptible cells of the host, i.e. the probability of the virus' productive absorption on a susceptible cell and the average virus yield per cell. A different macroorganism (a model animal) and primary cells obtained from it can be used to determine the value of a scale factor, which accounts for the difference between the values of the probability of the virus' absorption measured in vivo and in vitro. An original mathematical model is used to convert the above-mentioned data to ID50 for the macroorganism of interest. It was shown that the method of cultivating influenza virus (A/ Aichi/2/68) in primary suspension culture of respiratory tract cells of rats and two breeds of mice may be used to estimate potential human susceptibility to novel influenza viruses. This work was sponsored by DAPRA, USA, and performed under the contract 450p to the International Science and Technology Center, Moscow.