Study on reservoir time-varying design flood of inflow based on Poisson process with time-dependent parameters
2018
Abstract. The time-varying design flood can make full use of the measured data, which
can provide the reservoir with the basis of both flood control and operation
scheduling. This paper adopts peak over threshold method for flood sampling
in unit periods and Poisson process with time-dependent parameters model for
simulation of reservoirs time-varying design flood. Considering the
relationship between the model parameters and hypothesis, this paper presents
the over-threshold intensity, the fitting degree of Poisson distribution and
the design flood parameters are the time-varying design flood unit period and
threshold discriminant basis, deduced Longyangxia reservoir time-varying
design flood process at 9 kinds of design frequencies. The time-varying
design flood of inflow is closer to the reservoir actual inflow conditions,
which can be used to adjust the operating water level in flood season and
make plans for resource utilization of flood in the basin.
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