Multiyear Variability in the Tasman Sea and Impacts on Southern Hemisphere Climate in CMIP5 Models

AbstractNaturally occurring multiyear to decadal variability is evident in rainfall, temperature, severe weather, and flood frequency around the globe. It is therefore important to understand the cause of this variability and the extent to which it can be predicted. Here internally generated decadal climate variability and its predictability potential in an ensemble of CMIP5 models are assessed. Global hot spots of subsurface ocean decadal variability are identified, revealing variability in the southern Tasman Sea that is coherent with variability in much of the Pacific Ocean and Southern Hemisphere. It is found that subsurface temperature variability in the southern Tasman Sea primarily arises in response to preceding changes in Southern Hemisphere winds. This variability is multiyear to decadal in character and is coherent with surface temperature in parts of the Southern Hemisphere up to several years later. This provides some degree of potential predictability to surface temperature in the southern T...