CAR TRAFFIC FORECASTING - BACKSIGHTS, INSIGHTS AND FORESIGHTS

The paper seeks to develop a robust model as a basis for predicting year on year changes in car traffic flow, inputting those variables which, on examination, have appeared most susceptible to modelling cause and effect - namely real personal disposable income and fuel prices (not deflated for retail price index changes). The paper has also attempted to review the evolution of car traffic forecasting, a complex subject in which most of the research effort has gone into modelling and hence predicting car ownership. The author has endeavoured to extend this to the use of a car and hence total changes in car traffic levels nationally. Amongst the conclusions listed are the following: car-traffic forecasting can be undertaken from a sounder conceptual base using a causal as distinct from extrapolatory model; petrol deliveries and sales can give early indication of motorists' response to changing economic circumstances well ahead of published car traffic census data; a possible trend to smaller vehicles may now be evident following the second oil crisis of 1979. (TRRL)