Predicting the risk of the distant recurrence of cervical cancer after concurrent chemoradiation: A validation study of the Korean Gynecologic Oncologic Group (KGOG)-1024 model.

Abstract Background This study aimed to validate the performance of the Korean Gynecologic Oncologic Group (KGOG)-1024 risk model in predicting the risk of distant failure after chemoradiation in patients with locally advanced cervical cancer (LACC). Methods In a retrospective cohort of 297 patients who received concurrent chemoradiation for advanced cervical cancer, individual risk was calculated using the KGOG-1024 risk model. The cohort was categorized into three risk groups (low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups) according to the calculated risk. The means of the calculated and observed risks were compared within each group. Results The study population was classified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups according to the KGOG-1024 risk model (27.2%, 49.3%, and 23.5% of patients, respectively). The calculated and observed 5-year cumulative incidence rates were 12.4% vs. 16.4% in the low-risk group, 23.2% vs. 25.9% in the intermediate-risk group, and 50.7% vs. 36.3% in the high-risk group. Overall, the calculated and observed risk was 26.7% vs. 25.6%. Conclusions The KGOG-1024 risk assessment model accurately predicted distant recurrence after chemoradiation in patients with LACC, especially in the low- and intermediate-risk groups. The model may be helpful for identifying patients for future trials assessing the possible benefit of adjuvant systemic treatment after chemoradiation.