Predictive analytic models of student success in higher education: A review of methodology

Purpose Many higher education institutions are investigating the possibility of developing predictive student success models that use different sources of data available to identify students that might be at risk of failing a course or program. The purpose of this paper is to review the methodological components related to the predictive models that have been developed or currently implemented in learning analytics applications in higher education. Design/methodology/approach Literature review was completed in three stages. First, the authors conducted searches and collected related full-text documents using various search terms and keywords. Second, they developed inclusion and exclusion criteria to identify the most relevant citations for the purpose of the current review. Third, they reviewed each document from the final compiled bibliography and focused on identifying information that was needed to answer the research questions Findings In this review, the authors identify methodological strengths and weaknesses of current predictive learning analytics applications and provide the most up-to-date recommendations on predictive model development, use and evaluation. The review results can inform important future areas of research that could strengthen the development of predictive learning analytics for the purpose of generating valuable feedback to students to help them succeed in higher education. Originality/value This review provides an overview of the methodological considerations for researchers and practitioners who are planning to develop or currently in the process of developing predictive student success models in the context of higher education.