Predictive value of CT for first esophageal variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis: Value of para-umbilical vein patency

Abstract Purpose To evaluate if the presence/size of a para-umbilical vein (PUV) on computed tomography (CT) are associated with a first esophageal variceal hemorrhage (EVH) in patients with cirrhosis and whether imaging features can help identify patients at increased risk of EVH. Materials and methods From January 2010 to June 2012 patients with cirrhosis who underwent CT and upper gastrointestinal endoscopy within six months were included. The presence/size of PUV was noted. PUV>5mm were considered large (LPUV). Association with a first EVH was searched for, and validated in a prospective cohort of 55 patients. Results 172 patients (113 men, mean 60±12 yo) were included. Forty-three patients (25%) experienced a first EVH. LPUV were more frequent in the group without EVH (27% vs. 7%, p=0.005). At multivariate analysis, factors associated with a first EVH were spleen size>135mm (Odd Ratio [OR]=1.32 [95% confident interval [CI] 1.16–1.51], p Conclusions A simple imaging score combining the PUV and spleen size, and the presence of ascites could help to identify cirrhotic patients at high-risk for EVH.