North Atlantic Subtropical Mode Waters and Ocean Memory in HadCM3

Abstract A study of the formation and propagation of volume anomalies in North Atlantic Mode Waters is presented, based on 100 yr of monthly mean fields taken from the control run of the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3). Analysis of the temporal and spatial variability in the thickness between pairs of isothermal surfaces bounding the central temperature of the three main North Atlantic subtropical mode waters shows that large-scale variability in formation occurs over time scales ranging from 5 to 20 yr. The largest formation anomalies are associated with a southward shift in the mixed layer isothermal distribution, possibly due to changes in the gyre dynamics and/or changes in the overlying wind field and air–sea heat fluxes. The persistence of these anomalies is shown to result from their subduction beneath the winter mixed layer base where they recirculate around the subtropical gyre in the background geostrophic flow. Anomalies in the warmest mode (18°C) formed on the western...