Probability assessment for deep-draft navigation channel design

This paper describes a method for assessing the probability of a ship accident in an entrance channel for different recurrence intervals using model data. This new method includes a rational criteria for evaluating various channel configurations and depths for a range of realistic environmental (i.e., wind, wave, and current) conditions and annual number of ship calls. This four-component climatology-interactive model includes a Poisson probability law for number of ship arrivals, a Bernoulli probability law for grounding in a single random ship arrival, an estimation of the probability parameter in the Bernoulli law from model tests, and a determination of recurrence intervals or return periods. A remote-controlled model of a C9 containership was used to evaluate the navigability of existing and proposed harbor and entrance-channel configurations for a range of environmental conditions in a three-dimensional physical model of Barbers Point Harbor, Oahu, HI.