A Method for Exponential Component Storage Effect Evaluation Based on Bayesian Inference

With regard to the reliability of weapons after long-term storage including torpedoes, mines and missiles, this paper analyzes the practical dilemma that it is difficult to accurately determine the storage life of equipment at present, and points out that the storage life of components is crucial to the storage life of equipment. For this reason, a method is proposed to estimate the storage life distribution parameters of exponential component and then accurately evaluate the storage effect by utilizing the test results during the actual storage period. As revealed in the example design and numerous results of simulation verification, this proposed estimation method brings satisfying results, and overcomes the shortcoming of conventional storage test in its demand for a large number of samples, so it is of very high value for practical application.