PREDICTION BASED ON AVAILABILITY BULOG COMMUNITY LEVEL RICE CONSUMPTION IN INDONESIA.

ABSTRACT : Forecasting is something that must be considered by the management company in order to maintain the survival of the company, it is also useful to deal with competition problems with the sale of similar companies. Forecasting is also useful to see whether the policies that have been taken by the company during the previous period have been appropriate or no improvement. Repairs are carried out in order to maintain its position. To find out how much rice supply Bulog in the next year, then the index is to be forecast based on inventory data that has been processed rice by Bulog from 2001 until the year 2006. analysis tools used in this PI is the method of Single Exponential Smothing (SES) and Trend Linear Least Square method, and to analyze the forecast error method Average Absolute Error (AAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Deviasion (MAD ) as a Forecasting Control.. while using the Trend Linear Least Square method, the rice supply in 2007 predicted as many as 17,677,107 tons, with the forecasting control AAE RMSE of 0.33 and 0.82. For consumption, using the methods of Single Exponential Smooting (SES), supply of rice in 2007 predicted as much 32,675,310.83 tons, with a range of X 32,110,097.17 33,240,524.5 tons. while using the Trend Linear Least Square method, rice consumption in 2007 forecast as much 33,504,536.27 tons, with the forecasting control AAE and RMSE 0.17 for 0.6. Bibliography (1984 2000).