Preliminary quantitative microbial risk assessment of pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus in short mackerel in Malaysia

Abstract A preliminary quantitative microbial risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in short mackerels was conducted from retail to consumption levels in a stochastic model. The key uncertainties included of growth during retail display, transportation duration, and microbial log reduction after the preparation and cooking steps were taken into consideration in the exposure assessment. Human health risk associated with the consumption of short mackerels contaminated with pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus was predicted by fitting the number of cells ingested into a Beta-Poisson dose-response model. Advanced sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the predictive factors most highly correlated with risk illness. The model evaluated through Monte Carlo simulation revealed an estimated number of illness ranged from 1.34 × 10 −4 to 12.80 with an average incidence of 2.07 cases per annum. The rates per 100,000 population were predicted at 6.53 × 10 −3 cases per year in Malaysia. In this study, the development of quantitative microbial risk assessment of V. parahaemolyticus in short mackerels provides valuable information such as the probability of illness associated with the consumption of short mackerels and the primary factor quantitatively important for risk illness.