Rethinking Iran’s brain drain: System dynamics modeling and causal layered analysis to investigate the future behaviors of complex societal issues

Abstract The brain drain crisis is among the most challenging issues of many developing countries, attributed to the compounding effects of multiple factors. As communities and their challenges become more complex, new sets of mixed research tools that critically investigate these issues as whole systems rather than isolated parts are crucial for future decision makings. In light of this, mixed research approaches offer the chance to overcome most of the limitations of individual methods and provide potential solutions to complicated problems that are more in-depth than a single form of research method. In this paper, by drawing on the complementary characteristics of Causal Layered Analysis and Participatory System Dynamics, a mixed approach for investigating the future behaviors of complex socio-economic systems and exploring the effectiveness of various policy interventions over time is proposed. Moreover, Iran’s brain drain case study is presented for further assessment of the proposed approach. The implication of the proposed approach to skills mobility or the so-called brain drain phenomenon is the undisputable role of human capital efficiency in the future developments of the nation. Through this approach, in the first step, an issue is critically analyzed and unpacked into four layers, namely as litany, structure, worldview, and metaphor. In the second step, a participatory approach is implemented to systematically model the issue based on the results of the previous step via five stages. The utility of this approach is its ability to critically examine the future behaviors of complex systems under the effect of different policy interventions and scenarios. Therefore, the proposed approach will generate theoretical value for researchers in the field of futures studies and harbor practical value for policymakers who seek a better mechanism to critically investigate complex socio-economic systems.