Study and application of ensemble model of hierarchical structure for reservoir runoff prediction

The traditional reservoirs runoff prediction models can not fully consider the forecasting information of single models and are lack of the preprocessing of the single models and their results.The ensemble model of hierarchical structure for reservoir runoff prediction is established,in which,two evaluation indexes of prediction accuracy and prediction stability are introduced;based on the pretreatment for each model and their forecasting results,the weight of each single model is determined.The application in the Three Gorges Reservoir indicates that the model developed could fully utilize the forecasting information of each single method and its accuracy and stability are better than those of single models in some degree.Therefore,the multi-model and comprehensive forecasting information of the inflow runoff for hydropower station is accessible by the presented model.