Progression of Celiac Disease in Children With Antibodies Against Tissue Transglutaminase and Normal Duodenal Architecture

Abstract Background & Aims Potential celiac disease is characterized by positive results from serologic tests for tissue transglutaminase antibodies (anti-TG2) but normal duodenal architecture (Marsh stages 0–1). There is controversy over the best way to manage these patients. We investigated risk factors associated with the development of villous atrophy in children with potential celiac disease. Methods We performed a prospective study of 280 children (ages 2–18 years) in Italy with suspected celiac disease, followed for up to 12 years (range, 18–150 months; median 60 months). The subjects had 2 consecutive positive results from tests for anti-TG2, tested positive for the endomysial antibody (anti-EMA), had total serum levels of IgA in the normal range, normal duodenal architecture (Marsh stages 0–1) in 5 biopsies, and HLA DQ2- or DQ8-positive haplotypes. The children underwent serologic tests and clinical analyses every 6 months and a small bowel biopsy was taken every 2 years. Two hundred ten patients of the original cohort were assessed at the 9-year follow-up evaluation. We performed multivariate analyses of clinical, genetic, and histologic data to identify factors associated with progression to villous atrophy. Results During the follow-up period, 42 of 280 children (15%) developed villous atrophy whereas 89 children (32%) no longer tested positive for anti-TG2 or anti-EMA. The cumulative incidence of progression to villous atrophy was 43% at 12 years. In multivariate analysis, the baseline factors most strongly associated with development of villous atrophy were numbers of γδ intraepithelial lymphocyte cells followed by age and homozygosity for the HLA DQB1*02. In discriminant analysis, these baseline factors identified 80% of the children who developed baseline atrophy. Conclusions In a long-term study of 280 children with suspected celiac disease (based on anti-TG2 and anti-EMA) on gluten-containing diets, the cumulative incidence of progression to villous atrophy was 43% over a 12-year period. We identified factors that can be used to identify children at highest risk for villous atrophy. This approach might be used to determine whether children with suspected celiac disease should immediately start a gluten-free diet or be monitored on their regular diet.