The Spectral Source Model: A Tool for Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment

Abstract Seismic‐hazard assessment at small scales requires the computation of realistic broad‐band accelerograms near the sources. Methods that use only natural records are often limited because of the limited data set. Among recently developed methods for source modelling, the spectral‐source model, based on the k−2 dislocation distribution seems particularly promising as it enables computation of synthetics for any source‐receiver distance and directivity configuration. The spectral model takes into account important source characteristics, such as stress drop and directivity effects predicting acceptable high‐frequency levels, whatever the station location (Bernard et al., 1996b). Firstly, some tests to explain the directivity properties of the model are presented, followed by the main results of a deterministic study carried out for the 1992 Erzincan earthquake, Turkey. Finally, results of a probabilistic study in the Moyenne‐Durance region (France) are used to demonstrate the ability of this method ...