The value of observations. III: Influence of weather regimes on targeting

This paper assesses the value of targeted observations over the North Atlantic Ocean for different meteorological flow regimes. It shows that during tropical cyclone activity and particularly tropical cyclone transition to extratropical characteristics, removing observations in sensitive regions, indicated by singular vectors optimized on the 2-day forecast over Europe, degrades the skill of a given forecast more so than excluding observations in randomly selected regions. The maximum downstream degradation computed in terms of spatially and temporally averaged root-mean-square error of 500 hPa geopotential height is about 13%, a value which is 6 times larger than when removing observations in randomly selected areas. The forecast impact for these selected periods, resulting from degrading the observational coverage in sensitive areas, was similar to the impact found (elsewhere in other weather forecast systems) for the observational targeting campaigns carried out over recent years, and it was larger than the average impact obtained by considering a larger set of cases covering various seasons. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society