Simulating Fine-Scale Atmospheric Processes: A New Core Capability and its Application to Predicting Wildfire Behavior

This LDRD project consisted of the development, testing, and prototype application of a new capability to couple atmospheric models of different spatial and temporal scales with a state-of-the-science vegetation-fuel combustion model and a GIs-based analysis system. The research addressed the complex, multi-scale interactions of atmospheric processes, combustion, and vegetative fuel conditions, using a suite of models to simulate their impact on wildfire behavior in areas of complex terrain. During the course of the project, we made substantial progress toward the implementation of a world-class modeling system that could be used as a tool for wildfire risk assessment, wildfire consequence analysis, wildfire suppression planning, fuels management, firefighter training, and public fire-safety education. With one additional year of funding we would have been able conduct combined modeling and field experiments to evaluate the models capability to predict the behavior of prescribed burns before they are ignited. Because of its investment in this LDRD project, LLNL is very close to having a new core capability--likely the world's most generally applicable, most scientifically sound, and most respected wildfire simulation system.