Identifying corridors for landscape connectivity using species distribution modeling of Hydnocarpus kurzii (King) Warb., a threatened species of the Indo-Burma Biodiversity Hotspot

Modeling habitat corridors for landscape connectivity may serve as an efficient tool for assisting the colonization of threatened and endemic species in the event of environmental change. We demonstrate this through a population survey, species distribution modeling, and the least cost path method. As an example, we used Hydnocarpus kurzii (King) Warb., a threatened and endemic medicinal tree species distributed in the Indo-Burma Biodiversity Hotspot covering northeast India, Myanmar, and Bangladesh. We assessed its population in the wild and characterized its current habitats. We also predicted its potential habitats and modeled the connectivity between its potential habitats in the state of Tripura, northeast India. Overall, 18 wild populations of the species comprising 36 mature trees were recorded from glen and upland habitats. About 4 % (~ 443 km2) of the total area of Tripura is predicted to be suitable for H. kurzii. Maxent outputs duly validated by field surveys revealed that the habitat corridors are concentrated mostly in the hill tracts, and that glen types of habitat offer suitable ecological conditions for the species compared to uplands. All the identified areas can form connective corridors among the existing populations. Since ~ 84 % of this suitable area has > 50 % tree cover, these corridors should effectively assist the threatened and endemic plant species in propagule dispersal and support its regeneration and establishment.