The Political Influence of Older Americans

This essay explores the future prospects for the political influence of older Americans. Some analysts contend that the next fifty years will bring a marked increase in the political influence of the elderly. Others argue that the aged are unlikely to become a significant political influence at any time in the forseeable future. We review the relevant evidence and conclude that it is not entirely consistent with either of these positions. Our analysis suggests a third alternative, that there will be a marked increase in the political resources of the elderly, which will not necessarily translate into an increase in political influence. Two of the questions that most intrigue political gerontologists are: (1) how much political influence do older Americans have today and (2) how much political influence are they likely to come to have in the years ahead. There is a tendency for those who believe that older Americans have relatively little political influence today to also believe that there will be little if any increase in their influence for the foreseeable future (Maddox, 1978; Campbell, 1971). Similarly, those who would have us believe that older people are a significant political block today tend to foresee an increase in the political influence of older people during the next fifty years or so (Peterson et al., 1976; Butler, 1974). Our analysis of the evidence suggests a third alternative. Due to increasing levels of education, advances in telecommunications, the changing *Adapted from our forthcoming book, THE POLITICS OF AGING. Springfield, Illinois: Charles C. Thomas.