Epidemiological model for the inhomogeneous spatial spreading of COVID-19 and other diseases
2020
We suggest a mathematical model for the spread of an infectious disease in
human population, with particular attention to the COVID-19. Common
epidemiological models, e.g., the well-known
susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model, implicitly assume fast
mixing of the population relative to the local infection rate, similar to the
regime applicable to many chemical reactions. However, in human populations,
especially under different levels of quarantine conditions, this assumption is
likely to fail. We develop a continuous spatial model that includes five
different populations, in which the infectious population is split into latent
(or pre-symptomatic) and symptomatic. Based on nearest-neighbor infection kinetics, we arrive
into a ``reaction-diffusion99 model. Our model accounts for front propagation of the
infectious population domains under partial quarantine conditions, which is
present on top of the common local infection process. Importantly, we also account
for the variable geographic density of the population, that can strongly enhance or
suppress infection spreading. Our results demonstrate how infected domains
spread outward from epicenters/hotspots, leading to different regimes of
sub-exponential (quasi linear or power-law) growth. Moreover, we show how
weakly infected regions surrounding a densely populated area can cause rapid
migration of the infection towards the center of the populated area. Predicted
heat-maps show remarkable similarity to recently media released heat-maps. We
further demonstrate how localized strong quarantine conditions can
prevent the spreading of the disease from an epicenter/hotspot, significantly
reducing the number of infected people. Application of our model in different
countries, using actual demographic data and infectious disease parameters, can
provide a useful predictive tool for the authorities, in particular, for
planning strong lockdown measures in localized areas.
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