Study on the Energy and Electricity Export Intention of the Asian Sending-Ends During the Asia-Europe Intercontinental Transmission

The rich reserve of energy resources in Asia region bring a high potential in large-scale clean energy and electricity transmission to the European load centers. The energy and electricity export intention analysis model is proposed to study the Asia-Europe intercontinental transmission. It is consist of three sub-modules, the sending-end, receiving-end and international background module. Based on the industrial economics theory and the practical trade chain, the simultaneous equations are established, and are evaluated by the vector auto-regression method. Taking the primary energy and electricity export from Russia to Europe as the application example, considering the pre-set scenario, the future export intention of Russia is analyzed. The outputs show the growth of Russia GDP can rely on increase of the primary energy and electricity export which characterized a trend of enhancement on the electricity as well as reduction on the primary energy. The development of the two industry possessed divergence patterns, indicating over exploitation of fossil fuel and initiation of renewable energy utilization. Overall, assuming a steady geopolitical situation, the Russia export intention of primary energy and clean electricity will be enhanced steadily in the future.