Validation of Short- and Long-term Demographic Forecasts Using the Canadian Cystic Fibrosis Registry

National cystic fibrosis (CF) data registries track patient characteristics over time and have provided insight into both emerging trends and current clinical needs. In a recent study, Burgel et al . utilised the flow method, a demographic model that predicts future trends in populations, and forecasted a 50% increase in the Western European CF population by 2025, with the adult population experiencing the largest increase [1]. Burgel et al . subsequently used the French registry to validate short-term predictions [2]; however, the accuracy of longer term projections has not been assessed. Footnotes This manuscript has recently been accepted for publication in the European Respiratory Journal . It is published here in its accepted form prior to copyediting and typesetting by our production team. After these production processes are complete and the authors have approved the resulting proofs, the article will move to the latest issue of the ERJ online. Please open or download the PDF to view this article. Conflict of interest: Dr. Martelli has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: Ms. Sykes has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: Dr. Burgel reports personal fees from Astra-Zenaca, grants and personal fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, personal fees from Chiesi, personal fees from GSK, personal fees from Novartis, personal fees from Pfizer, personal fees from Teva, personal fees from Vertex, personal fees from Zambon, outside the submitted work. Conflict of interest: Dr. Bellis has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: Dr. Coriati has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: Dr. Stanojevic has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: Dr. Stephenson reports grants and personal fees from Cystic Fibrosis Canada, personal fees from Vertex Pharmceuticals, outside the submitted work.