Does Policy Instability Matter for International Equity Markets

We test whether policy uncertainty affects international equity returns. We construct two measures of global policy uncertainty based on the ratings from international country risk guide. They capture the potential policy shock from government changes and the bureaucratic ability to reduce policy shocks. Both factors significantly affect equity returns in 49 countries from 1995 to 2006 and the bureaucratic factor carries an annual risk premium of 8 percent. The economic and institutional conditions within a country affect the return relation with the policy uncertainty. Overall, our study reveals the significance and distinct characterization of policy uncertainty in international equity markets.