Environmental and economic impacts of rising sea levels: A case study in Kuwait's coastal zone

Abstract From an environmental and economic perspective, Kuwait's coastal zone is highly vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR). This paper aims to assess SLR's impact on Kuwait's coastal zone at both the local and national level. The economic and environmental assessments focused on inundation of land, the population at risk, residential sector losses, and affected infrastructure under four SLR scenarios (0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2 m sea rise). Several spatial datasets comprising a digital elevation model, satellite images, and land use map were processed using ArcGIS 10. In addition, the rate of beach erosion from SLR was calculated by applying the Bruun rule. The results revealed that the governorates expected to be the most severely impacted were Hawalli and Kuwait Capital, in terms of both the number of affected people and the residential sector's economic losses. Although the Ahmadi governorate would experience a lower risk of inundation, its coastal area is home to the oil industry, including refineries, harbors, and several power and desalination plants. On a national scale, applying the Bruun rule revealed that the beaches investigated would be eroded entirely by a 1 m increase in sea level. Furthermore, if sea levels rose from 0.5 m to 2 m, 1.4%–4.8% of Kuwait's coastal zone would be inundated, forcing 0.28%–1% of residents to abandon their homes, causing residential losses of $3,463 to $11,142 million. In the same scenarios, the transportation sector would suffer damage to around 1.5%–5% of its road network. The impact of SLR would also extend to the natural environment of Kuwait Bay and caused damage to its ecosystems. The predicted consequences of SLR would vary from one area to another based on natural barriers, shoreline type, coastal structures, and the type of urban development. Therefore, national and local governments' response should consider the long-term consequences of SLR and initiate a proactive adaptation strategy.