Frost risks in the Mantaro river basin

Abstract. As part of the study on the Mantaro river basin's (central Andes of Peru) current vulnerability to climate change, the temporal and spatial characteristics of frosts were analysed. These characteristics included intensity, frequency, duration, frost-free periods, area distribution and historical trends. Maps of frost risk were determined for the entire river basin, by means of mathematical algorithms and GIS (Geographic Information Systems) tools, using minimum temperature – 1960 to 2002 period, geomorphology, slope, land-use, types of soils, vegetation and life zones, emphasizing the rainy season (September to April), when the impacts of frost on agriculture are most severe. We recognized four categories of frost risks: low, moderate, high and critical. The critical risks (with a very high probability of occurrence) were related to high altitudes on the basin (altitudes higher than 3800 m a.s.l.), while the low (or null) probability of occurring risks were found in the lower zones (less than 2500 m a.s.l.). Because of the very intense agricultural activity and the high sensitivity of the main crops (Maize, potato, artichoke) in the Mantaro valley (altitudes between 3100 and 3300 m a.s.l.), moderate to high frost risks can be expected, with a low to moderate probability of occurrence. Another significant result was a positive trend of 8 days per decade in the number of frost days during the rainy season.