Prognostic Accuracy of Continuous Glucose Monitoring in the Prediction of Diabetes Mellitus in Children with Incidental Hyperglycemia: Receiver Operating Characteristic Analysis

Abstract Aim: The purpose of this study is to evaluate continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) in predicting diabetes mellitus in children with incident hyperglycemia (IH) and negativity for some insular autoantibodies. Subjects and Methods: Thirty-one autoantibody-negative children who presented at our center with IH underwent a baseline assessment and were followed up for 23.8 months (range, 6–48 months). At the end of the follow-up, we compared the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) areas under the curve (AUCs) of metabolic markers from 17 children who developed diabetes (Group A; n=17) and 14 children who did not develop diabetes (Group B; n=14). Results: Only two oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT)-derived markers and three CGM-derived markers showed a good prognostic performance, with ROC AUCs indicating significant results (P<0.0001) for the following markers: 2-h glucose, OGTT (0.813; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.621–0.954); AUC glucose, OGTT (0.832; 95% CI 0.611–0.950); CGM glucose measurement ...