Simulations of Dynamics and Transport during the September 2002 Antarctic Major Warming

Abstract A mechanistic model simulation initialized on 14 September 2002, forced by 100-hPa geopotential heights from Met Office analyses, reproduced the dynamical features of the 2002 Antarctic major warming. The vortex split on ∼25 September; recovery after the warming, westward and equatorward tilting vortices, and strong baroclinic zones in temperature associated with a dipole pattern of upward and downward vertical velocities were all captured in the simulation. Model results and analyses show a pattern of strong upward wave propagation throughout the warming, with zonal wind deceleration throughout the stratosphere at high latitudes before the vortex split, continuing in the middle and upper stratosphere and spreading to lower latitudes after the split. Three-dimensional Eliassen–Palm fluxes show the largest upward and poleward wave propagation in the 0°–90°E sector prior to the vortex split (coincident with the location of strongest cyclogenesis at the model’s lower boundary), with an additional re...