The Current State and 125 Kyr History of Permafrost in the Kara Sea Shelf: Modeling Constraints

Abstract. The evolution of permafrost in the Kara shelf is reconstructed for the past 125 kyr. The work includes zoning of the shelf according to geological history, compiling sea-level and ground temperature scenarios within the distinguished zones, and forward modeling to evaluate the thickness of permafrost and the extent of frozen, cold and unfrozen rocks. The modeling results are correlated to the available field data and are presented as geocryological maps. The formation of frozen, cold, and unfrozen rocks of the region is inferred to depend on the spread of ice sheets, sea level, and duration of shelf freezing and thawing periods.