Estimation of the Mid and Late Century Extreme Summer Winds Over the Eastern Mediterranean from EURO-CORDEX Models

Episodes of extremely strong, northerly winds, known as Etesians and observed during summer, can cause hazardous conditions over the Eastern Mediterranean (EMED). We used an ensemble of six GCM-RCM model chains from EURO-CORDEX at a 12 km resolution to estimate future changes of Etesians over the twenty-first century, under the two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyze the ensemble mean response regarding changes in Etesians’ frequency, intensity, and the associated large-scale atmospheric circulation. The mean model ensemble projects a strengthening of the Etesians under both RCPs. Changes are associated with an amplification of the large-scale sea-level pressure dipole that controls the pressure gradient over the Aegean Sea. The European sector exhibits a reinforced westerly flow, accelerating the eastward progression of synoptic systems that amplify the high-pressure system over the Balkans. In addition, the EMED sector exhibits a stronger 200 hPa zonal flow and an intensified subtropical jet stream, which shifts poleward by the end of the twenty-first century in both RCPs. The projected changes will have important societal implications in the wake of concerns over the preservation of wildfire and pollution. Finally, the current estimate of future wind power potential for the Aegean Sea will be significantly increased by the end of the century.